A priсe range question is a type of question in which you are asked to set a price range for an asset over a certain time period. It can be the maximum and minimum price during a particular period, open and close prices, etc. Your goal is to try to estimate, as closely as possible, the actual minimum and maximum values during that period.
How are points calculated for range questions?
To calculate your points we use a special parameter called range. Range differs for each question and is defined by our analytical team to account for the volatility of an asset for the period in question. You can get from -75 (if both predictions fall farther than 0.7*range) to 75 points (if both predictions are 100% accurate).
Points = 75 - (|real_min - user_min|+|real_max - user_max|)/ (range * 0.35) * 150
To gain positive points, your answers must fall within this specific range corridor near the actual high and low values of the asset. The size of the range corridor is decided based on the volatility of the asset. While you cannot calculate the exact acceptable input range of any given asset, you do know that assets with more volatility (BTC, on a day of large movement) have more give for positive points than an asset with less volatility. Any guesses outside of this range will generate a negative point value.
The figure for volatility reflects overall price movement, not percentage movement. The basic concept is that the more a price is moving in a day, the more leeway you have in your guesses, so scale them accordingly.
There are many strategies you can use for answering range questions. Which is best depends strongly on the amount of time you want to spend. Let’s detail the quick and dirty method. It won’t take into account the nuances of a more advanced method, but it beats simple guesswork.
Read the question carefully to understand when the range in question is — there is a latency period between when your answer is due and the range of time being asked about. For crypto weeklies, it is most often 13 hours, but check consistently as this may be subject to change.
Look back at the movement of the last few days and weeks:
- Is the asset trending up or down? Have there been recent large jumps?
- What does the pattern look like after these moves?
- Is the volume rising or falling?
- How are the MACD lines looking?
- What are key support and resistance points?
- How does the movement of the asset work long term?