Binary probabilistic questions are questions that only have two possible answers: yes or no. You answer by giving a 0–100% probability of an event happening. A 0–49% probability is interpreted as a negative answer with various degrees of confidence, while a 51–100% probability is interpreted as an affirmative answer with various degrees of confidence.


A conditional binary question is a question that asks “If event A happens, will event B also happen?” For example: “If Neo trades above $80 by 20 December, will NEO also trade above $120 by 10 January?“ Neo would have to reach $80 by December 20, or else all predictions would get a 0 score. Therefore, you have to predict the likelihood of the second event happening (Neo above $120) and it will only be counted if the first event happens as well.


How are points counted for binary questions?

 

The number of points is calculated as the difference between 50% and the user’s answer. For instance, if a user chose a 65% probability for the event “Will Bitcoin’s price rise to $3,500 by 30 July?” and the correct answer is “no” (= 0%), they will lose 15 points (50 - 65). A forecaster who answers 20% to this question will get 30 points (50 - 20) for the right answer. If the correct answer is “yes” (= 100%), a user who chose 65% will receive 15 points (65 - 50) and a user who chose 20% will lose 30 points (20 - 50). Therefore, the maximum number of points you can win for each binary question is 50.